Capital signals for Crypto X.

Why compare narrative with capital?

A post on X is a claim: “this is breaking out”, “this is dead”. Likes and reposts measure how far the claim travelled, not whether it is true. Market activity is a different kind of evidence. If people are really acting on a narrative, it usually shows up in liquidity, volume and trading. CONVICTION puts the two side by side.

1. Liquidity, and how it changes

Liquidity is the depth of the pools a token trades in. Rising liquidity can mean capital is committing to a market; draining liquidity is one of the clearest warning signs. Two caveats: pooled liquidity in USD rises and falls partly with the token's own price, and a trend needs at least two observations. CONVICTION only shows a liquidity trend when it has its own earlier observation.

2. Volume acceleration

Compare the last hour's volume with the 24-hour hourly average. “Volume +60% vs average” says activity is picking up. It does not say in which direction: heavy volume during a sell-off is not support for a bullish post.

3. Buy/sell trade imbalance (counts)

The ratio of buy trades to sell trades in the last hour or six hours. It is a useful lean, but it is a count, not a dollar amount: a thousand small buys and one large sell can coexist. CONVICTION always labels it as a count and never calls it “inflow”.

4. Price, and price/volume divergence

Price movement is the most visible signal and the least reliable on its own. A big move on slowing volume (divergence) often means the move is running out of participation. In CONVICTION's methodology, price alone can never produce “Capital confirms”.

5. Market structure

Pair age, liquidity relative to market cap, and the number of trades all tell you how much to trust the other signals. A pair created an hour ago with $15k of liquidity can show dramatic numbers that mean very little.

6. Paid promotion

Paid boosts and listings on token sites, and paid ads on X, buy attention. They are worth knowing about, and they should never be mistaken for organic popularity. CONVICTION discloses them and lowers confidence instead of counting them as attention.

What you can't see from public DEX data

• Who the buyers are. Labelling wallets as “smart money” requires wallet-level data and a defined methodology; CONVICTION V1 makes no such claims.
• Centralised-exchange activity, which dominates assets like BTC and ETH.
• Total attention across X. A single post's engagement is not the whole conversation.

Putting it together

CONVICTION combines these signals into a reproducible result. Capital confirms when the money agrees with the post, Hype > Capital when attention outruns it, Capital moved first when capital is moving more than the post is being noticed, and Insufficient evidence when it can't responsibly say. Read the full methodology, or install CONVICTION and see it on your feed.